Nov 16, 2022

The November Skuup - Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?

The November Skuup - Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?

We’re back with this month’s Skuup, where we sat down with data analyst, Sid Toriggino, as we cover this month’s convenience retail trends!

1. Market Metrics

Data From Skupos: A Network of 15,000 Independent Retailers

market metrics

*YA - Year Ago

Market: Overall trips and unit sales are still down for retailers. Inflation, supply chain bottlenecks and international affairs serve as major contributors to the overall downward trend.

2. The Volatility Continues

Regular gas prices are up 5% to $3.78 from their recent $3.61 low. While this is still 24% lower than the June peaks, it is something to monitor as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues and OPEC countries cut production. The Biden administration attempted to tamp down fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections; however, many global forces outside the government’s control are impacting fuel prices, making it difficult to predict where they will end up.

gas price monitor

3. Gallons per Transaction

Gallons per transaction have nearly returned to their pre-inflationary levels from the beginning of the year. As gas prices have returned to these levels, consumers are filling up around 10.2 gallons per visit. Regardless of the recent uptick in fuel prices, gallons per transaction have remained relatively unaffected.

gallons pumped transaction monitor

4. The Convenience Bell Curve Takes Shape

October merchandise sales per store finished 2% lower versus a year ago. Overall, this year’s average monthly merchandise sales per store are up modestly .6% from 2021. Convenience remains a strong channel as we slowly move out of the pandemic era, where on-premise dining, purchasing, and working were extremely limited. Merchandise dollar sales this past summer were the strongest on record, and inflation undoubtedly played a role as we consistently saw unit sales below 2021 levels. Taking a bearish approach through the end of the year, we can expect monthly in-store revenue to finish slightly below 2021 levels. We’ll check again in early 2023 to see where we ended up.

5. What Would You Do With $960 Million Dollars?

As the PowerBall has ballooned to $1.9 billion in recent weeks, lottery ticket revenue and foot traffic have spiked in stores. Lottery revenue peaked on November 5th at $1,612 per store, up 6.3x from the 12-week low. Additionally, stores saw a 3.4x increase in daily lottery transactions, which peaked at 141 transactions.

Not only is lottery foot traffic up significantly, but people are beginning to feel more lucky. Consumers spent 88% more per lottery transaction at $11.46 than the previous 12-week low at $6.11. Unfortunately, the odds of winning the lottery are about 1 in 300 million, so chances are we’re all going to have to get rich the old-fashioned way by working hard, networking, and getting a small $1 million loan from your dad.

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